George is thinking of being a candidate once again

Although apparently the national council of PASOK decided on some procedural issues, the most substantial outcome of the two-day meeting is that it gave Papandreou time to remain strong in the political game and form his strategy, one that is summarized in the slogan "a vindication of his two-year administration." In fact, Papandreou is not a politician on retirement, but quite active and on his way to a full comeback after the erratic passing on of his premiership to a coalition government.

By decision of the council, it is now highly likely that Papandreou will be at the helm of PASOK again in the forthcoming national elections. The decision specifies the procedure and, to a point, the time of the presidential elections. Papandreou is able to be present in this process, as he has never said publicly that he is leaving, and the time schedule is in his favor. There are three ways whereby things might move on regarding the debt problem, which is determining the political developments.

First scenario: failure of the bond exchange and the new loan program for the country, bringing bankruptcy and negative consequences for the Greek economy. In this case Papademos’ government collapses and causes immediate national elections, leading PASOK to not having time to elect a new leader by polls. The alternative, proposed by Anna Diamantopoulou, of electing the candidate prime minister from the parliamentary group, is of minor importance, as the question is who will agree to be credited with an electoral defeat of PASOK in a devastated country and a crumbling political scene.

Second scenario: and perhaps the one most likely to happen, is a successful conclusion of the negotiations on the PSI and the new loan agreement in mid- to late March. These require tough political, parliamentary and social battles, as the program will meet strong political and social reactions. In such circumstances it is almost impossible for PASOK to set up internal party polls for a new leader, while upon completion of the economic process, ND will withdraw its support to Papademos’ government and will ask for elections as provided for in the political leaders’ agreement.

So two things are expected to happen. On one hand PASOK will not have the necessary time to elect a new president, and on the other the successful conclusion of negotiations on the implementation of the October 26 decision will lead Papandreou to talk about success of his own policy for the salvation of the country, so that he should be judged by the Greek people.

Third scenario: Papademos’ government will have more time to promote structural changes and will not proceed to elections immediately after the signing of the new loan agreement and the completion of the PSI. Then, PASOK might have enough time to establish the internal party procedures. The critical question in this case is why not have Papandreou as a candidate again, who in the meantime will have reconstructed his party group. Some hope that Papandreou’s objective is to remain in the leadership of PASOK until June so as to get re-elected as president of the Socialist International, and then leave.

The common denominator in all scenarios is the fact that Papandreou declined to tell the national board that he is resigning from the leadership and does not intend to be a candidate. As for the approach which relates to him being forced to leave under the weight of negative opinion polls and a possible major defeat in national elections, it is probably incorrect, since the former prime minister was not put off by such things even in 2008, when PASOK came tumbling down the polls. Also, it is doubtful whether the electoral defeat of the party is relevant to his plans, as he can hope for a long-term resurgence of the movement, based on experience from the function of the two-party system in the country.