4% recession for 2013

Troika is clipping the estimates of the Greek government for dramatic improvement in the rate of recession of the Greek economy due to tourism.

Troika accepts as a basic macroeconomic scenario for this year that the recession will reach 4%, compared to the budget provision for 4.2%. But Greece came to the negotiations with a provision for a 3.8% decline in GDP, due to the positive course of tourism. The lenders did not seem persuaded whether Greece can maintain the improvement recorded in the first half of 2013 and accepted a more limited provision of recession at 4%.

This assessment that will be recorded in the preliminary draft budget for 2014 will be the starting point for negotiations on the macroeconomic scenario of the next year.

Although, according to members of the Ministry of Finance, officials have not yet begun this negotiation with Troika, they say that the smaller the estimate for the recession will be, the better the budgetary relief in the new budget. The Greek side seems ready to come to the new negotiation with estimates of marginal growth of 0.6% next year.